Holochain

The Daily Active Addresses indicator is a measure of the number of new addresses, total active addresses, and zero balance addresses on a daily basis. Here's how these categories are defined:

New Addresses

These are newly created addresses that receive their first deposit in a specific crypto-asset.

Active Addresses (DAAs)

Active Addresses refer to addresses that have made one or more on-chain transactions on a given day.

Zero Balance Addresses

Zero Balance Addresses are addresses that have transferred out or potentially sold all of their holdings in a particular crypto-asset.

Why is this helpful?

Tracking Daily Active Addresses (DAAs) can be a useful metric for monitoring network activity over time. Generally, an increase in DAAs indicates higher blockchain usage, while a decrease suggests lower demand for the network. DAAs often show a correlation with price activity, making them a leading indicator for price movements, as depicted in the graph above.

Quick Tip: Growth in daily active addresses tends to be associated with an increase in price, as demand for network usage is directly related to the demand for the blockchain's native token.

It's also worth monitoring the relationship between DAAs and price movements. If there is a strong correlation, it indicates that active addresses are following price rather than using the crypto-asset independently.

New addresses serve as a proxy for new money flowing into a crypto-asset. In some cases, this can be interpreted as a sign of optimism or even FOMO (fear of missing out). On the other hand, zero balance addresses indicate money leaving a crypto-asset, suggesting holders' loss of interest or lack of belief in the asset, or acting out of fear.

As shown in the screenshot above, new and zero balance addresses often move together. However, divergences between the two can indicate relative optimism or pessimism. For example, a rise in new addresses in late December 2019 could be seen as new investors buying or using a crypto-asset, which could be a bullish signal. Conversely, a higher number of zero balance addresses during the March 2020 price crash highlights pessimism or fearful behaviour among holders.

Overview

The GIOM classification system categorises addresses based on their profitability status: in the money, at the money, or out of the money. This calculates average cost of an address's tokens based on the weighted average price at which they were acquired or received. By analysing addresses and tokens, an overall view of profitability for a specific crypto asset is obtained.

Why is this helpful?

By examining the number of addresses making or losing money on their positions, users can gain insights into buying or selling pressure at particular price ranges. When a significant number of addresses are out of the money, there may be high selling pressure as these addresses may sell once the market price reaches their average cost, aiming to break even on their positions. This selling pressure acts as a resistance level, potentially hindering further price increases.

Conversely, large in the money clusters highlight important on-chain price ranges where a substantial number of addresses or token volumes were previously acquired and would currently yield profits if sold at the current price (which is higher than their acquisition cost). In such cases, a higher number of addresses in the money indicates a positive scenario for the network, as there may be less selling pressure from holders seeking to break even on their positions.

Overview

IntoTheBlock classifies addresses based on their holdings into three categories:

1. Whales: Addresses holding over 1% of a crypto-asset's circulating supply.
2. Investors: Addresses holding between 0.1% and 1% of the circulating supply.
3. Retail: Addresses with less than 0.1% of the circulating supply.
4. In most cases, any holder with over 0.1% of the circulating supply of a large-cap crypto-asset holds a substantial amount of funds. Therefore, Large Holders Netflow measures the net amount of inflows minus outflows specifically related to these addresses.

Why is this helpful?

Large Holders Netflow provides insight into the changing positions of whales and investors holding over 0.1% of the supply. In essence, spikes in netflow can indicate accumulation by large players, while drops suggest reduced positions or selling activity.

In the example depicted above, we illustrate how the growth in large holders netflow (green boxes) precedes spikes in the price of MATIC. This is due to the high inflows reflecting strong buying activity, which can indicate positive momentum in the market.

Overview

In the same way that IntoThBlock classifies the number of addresses by their holding period, this indicator takes it a step further by adding the value that each specific group has represented over time. The indicator shows the value of coins relative to each individual group (Hodlers, Cruisers and Traders) since its historic inception. This helps to keep track of the trading behaviors of each different group.

Why is this helpful?

Hodlers tend to decrease their holdings late into bull cycles (black arrows) while Traders rush in to buy (purple circles). This occurred through the double bubble in 2013, as well as in late 2017 and in 2021. Then, a few months after Hodlers begin to increase their balance again, we tend to see the beginning of a new bull cycle.

As the saying goes, “history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Here we can see how that has been the case for Bitcoin and how taking a look at these long-term shifts in ownership can be helpful when attempting to time the market.